First off, I do not in anyway believe that Obama actually has double-digit lead. The polls and the media are displaying two huge blind-spots, 1) a +7 to +10 party identification they are given the Democrats. This completely misses the enthusiasm which Sara Palin has generated. Party ID spread I venture to guess will be at best +3 for the Democrats. 2) Undecided voters will break two or three to one against Barak Obama. Why? They’re not really undecided at all, but just do not want to tell pollsters they are not voting for the black candidate. If after two year of campaigning by Barak still leaves these voters undecided, I beleive in the end they will just play it safe and vote for McCain.
McCain rocks the early night by delivering two huge states, Ohio by +3 and PA +1, with the coal industry and Catholics swinging overwhelming towards the ticket.
NC +5 is not that close in the end, going to McCain, as small town and rural areas overwhelm urban vote.
Florida +3, as surprisingly strong support from Jewish voters who are spooked by an Obama presidency
and Cuban-Americans move the state to McCain column
Virginia +.5 will be too closed to call most of the night. This will be a great sign for McCain, as his candidacy resides on the turnout of military families of Hampton Roads. TossUp
Missouri +3 and Indiana +4 will go McCain on huge Palinmania turnout.
Arizona +10, Montana +8 and North Dakota +8, McCain. Please, there is no way these states are toss-ups; polls showing their bias.
Obama nabs Iowa +4, New Mexico +2
Colorado will be much closer then polls are showing, again will be too close to call late into the night. “Putting coal plants out of business,” hurts Obama here, but not quite enough. He holds on +1.5.
Nevada, which had been tredding back to McCain, but will it be enough? I’ll give it to Obama in a squeaker.
So where does that leave us? Obama 257 McCain 268, with the election to be decided by Virginia. Navy families in Newport News come out in huge, huge numbers, bringing home the victory for the old navy pilot. McCain wins!.
From my mouth to God’s ear.
(oh the delight i will have watching Oberman and Mathews squirm. It will be orgasmic. Wow, I feel tingle going up my leg.)